In 2017, resolve to be more sceptical

I’m not a great one for making New Year’s resolutions. I prefer to set regular, shorter-term goals for myself. So, I’m a little uncomfortable asking people to consider a couple of resolutions for themselves. But, it’s that time of year when people reflect on where they are and where they’d like to get to so I’m striking while the iron is hot…

My first request, is that you be sceptical whenever you encounter statements of the form:

• Every X is Y;
• Most Xs are Y;
• No X is Y;
• X is the best example of Y

A few cases of these have cropped up in my social media timelines recently, often in the service of marketing something the author is selling. Your first line of defence is to consider how the author knows the statement to be true. What evidence do they have? Do you have counter-examples? How have they gathered that evidence? Are their methods sound? It could be that with a little modification the author’s statement could be true e.g.

• Every X is Y could become Most Xs are Y;
• Most Xs are Y could become Many Xs are Y;
• No X is Y could become Most Xs aren’t Y;
• X is the best example of Y could become X is a good example of Y

Sometimes a gentle challenge and a little debate can help the author and you to reach a new conclusion that advances your respective knowledge. Occasionally the author won’t engage with you. This can indicate there’s little evidence behind their assertion and that your time would be better spent elsewhere.

My second request is that you apply the same rigour to your own statements. Can you really extrapolate to every situation from the small sample you yourself are familiar with? What evidence could you provide if someone challenged your claim? Would a weaker conclusion be a better conclusion and lead to a better quality of debate?

I’ll resolve to be more sceptical if you do too.

Happy 2017